Jenkins, S; Harris, AJL; Lark, RM; (2016) 'Unlikely' outcomes might never occur, but what about 'unlikely (20% chance)' outcomes? In: Papafragou, D and Grodner, D and Mirman, D and Trueswell, JC, (eds.) Program: CogSci 2016: 38th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society. (pp. pp. 390-395). Cognitive Science Society: Philadelphia, PA, USA.

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Abstract

A commonly suggested solution to reduce misinterpretations of verbal probability expressions in risk communications is to use a verbal-numerical (mixed format) approach, but it is not known whether this increases understanding over and above a purely numerical format. Using the ‘which outcome’ methodology (Teigen & Filkuková, 2013), we examined the effect of using verbal, numerical and mixed communication formats, as well as investigating whether marking outcomes as salient would alter the outcomes people perceived as ‘unlikely’ or having a 20% chance of occurring. We observed no effect of saliency, but replicated previous findings, with general preference for values at the high end of a distribution (including maximum/above maximum values) present in both verbal and mixed communication formats. This demonstrates the relevance of these findings for real-world consequential risk communication. Whilst the estimates differed between the mixed and numerical formats, we fou

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