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Vitamin D Supplementation as a Potential Cause of U-shaped Associations between Vitamin D Levels and Negative Health Outcomes: A Decision Tree Analysis for Risk of Frailty

Kojima, G; Iliffe, S; Tanabe, M; (2017) Vitamin D Supplementation as a Potential Cause of U-shaped Associations between Vitamin D Levels and Negative Health Outcomes: A Decision Tree Analysis for Risk of Frailty. BMC Geriatrics , 17 , Article 236. 10.1186/s12877-017-0631-0. Green open access

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Abstract

Background: A recent controversy in vitamin D research is a “U-shaped association”, with elevated disease risks at both high and low 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25 (OH) D) levels. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study of 238 male nursing home veterans in Hawaii. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis identified groups based on 25 (OH) D and vitamin D supplementation for frailty risk. Characteristics were examined and compared across the groups using logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses. Results: CART analysis identified three distinct groups: vitamin D supplement users (n = 86), non-users with low vitamin D (n = 55), and non-users with high vitamin D (n = 97). Supplement users were the most frail, but had high mean 25 (OH) D of 26.6 ng/mL, which was compatible with 27.1 ng/mL in non-users with high vitamin D, while mean 25 (OH) D of non-users with low vitamin D was 11.7 ng/mL. Supplement users and non-users with low vitamin D were significantly more likely to be frail (odds ratio (OR) = 9.90, 95% CI = 2.18–44.86, p = 0.003; OR = 4.28, 95% CI = 1.44–12. 68, p = 0.009, respectively), compared with non-users with low vitamin D. ROC curve analysis showed the three groups significantly predicted frailty (area under the curve = 0.73), with sensitivity of 64.4% and specificity of 76.7%, while 25 (OH) D did not predict frailty. Conclusions: In these nursing home veterans, vitamin D supplement users were the most frail but with high 25 (OH) D. This can potentially be a cause of U-shaped associations between vitamin D levels and negative health outcomes.

Type: Article
Title: Vitamin D Supplementation as a Potential Cause of U-shaped Associations between Vitamin D Levels and Negative Health Outcomes: A Decision Tree Analysis for Risk of Frailty
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1186/s12877-017-0631-0
Publisher version: http://doi.org/10.1186/s12877-017-0631-0
Language: English
Additional information: © The Author(s). 2017 Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
Keywords: Frailty, Vitamin D, Vitamin D deficiency, Vitamin D supplementation, Nursing home
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Primary Care and Population Health
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10024307
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