Barrett, M.; Lowe, R.; Oreszczyn, T.; Steadman, P.; (2006) How to support growth with less energy. Foresight - Horizon Scanning: London, UK.

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Abstract

There is considerable potential to support growth with less use of primary energy and lower carbon emissions. This can be achieved through technical solutions (existing and new), as well as behavioural change. The goal of securing growth with lower carbon emissions is just one of several strategic goals that need to be satisfied. Of the others, the need to develop alternatives to an energy system heavily dependent on oil and natural gas and to maintain security of energy supply are likely to be the most important. The strategic goals are to achieve major reductions in the energy intensity of transport, buildings in use, and to achieve corresponding reductions in energy intensity of the major building materials. Key challenges associated with these strategic goals include: • the development of technologies to produce carbon-free cement, carbon-free steel, carbon-free glass • enabling infrastructural developments that provide a framework for a wide range of low-carbon technologies and increase energy diversity and security of supply • identification of key energy-efficiency tipping points and the construction of technology policy • development of methane-fired modular fuel cells • improved capabilities to model whole energy systems, i.e. adequately modelling both demand and supply, social/economic as well as technical, and assessing the impact outside of the UK system boundary • better low-carbon planning and improved co-ordination of planning, building control and other policy tools • better monitoring and feedback on the real performance of energy efficient technologies. The implication of the Energy White Paper goal of reducing CO2 emissions by 60% by 2050 is a six-fold reduction in the carbon intensity of the UK economy. In the longer run, it is clear that we will move towards a carbon-free economy. Within this transition, developments in supply, distribution and end-use technologies will be multiplicative, while action to constrain demand growth is crucial to the rate of the overall transition.

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