Christodoulou, A.; (2010) STUDI: a model to simulate the impacts of new metro lines on urban development in London. Doctoral thesis , UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

Urban systems are complex and change as a result of the interactions between their main elements. In order to model urban systems effectively, the dynamics of relationships between these elements need to be considered. This thesis investigates the interactions between transport and urban development, focusing on the impacts of new metro lines. A new model is developed for this purpose: the STUDI (Simulation of Transport and Urban Development Interactions) model. The main concept underlying the STUDI model is that the impacts of new transport infrastructure on urban development are reflected in the interactions between the main agents involved in the process, which are authorities, developers, businesses and population sub-models. The development sub-model is a regression model forecasting the number of new commercial and residential premises, and the business and population sub-models are microsimulation models. The business sub-model simulates business start-ups and closures and business location and relocation decisions. The population sub-model simulates in- and out- migration, demographic and employment change, and residential location decisions. The main results include changes in the spatial distributions of development, businesses and population over time under different transport supply scenarios. The STUDI model has been developed for London in order to test the wider impacts of the new metro lines. First it has been applied to evaluate the impacts of the Jubilee Line Extension (JLE) and then it was used to forecast the impacts of a line to open in the future: the East London Line Extension. Both cases indicate the positive impact of new transport infrastructure on urban development.

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