Madsen, JK;
Bailey, R;
Pilditch, TD;
(2017)
Growing a Bayesian Conspiracy Theorist: An Agent-Based Model.
In: Gunzelmann, G and Howes, A and Tenbrink, T and Davelaar, E, (eds.)
Proceedings of the 39th Annual Meetng of the Cognitive Science Society (CogSci 2017).
(pp. pp. 2657-2662).
Cognitive Science Society
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Abstract
Conspiracy theories cover topics from politicians to world events. Frequently, proponents of conspiracies hold these beliefs strongly despite available evidence that may challenge or disprove them. Therefore, conspiratorial reasoning has often been described as illegitimate or flawed. Here, we explore the possibility of growing a rational (Bayesian) conspiracy theorist through an Agent-Based Model. The agent has reasonable constraints on access to the total information as well its access to the global population. The model shows that network structures are central to maintain objectively mistaken beliefs. Increasing the size of the available network, yielded increased confidence in mistaken beliefs and subsequent network pruning, allowing for belief purism. Rather than ameliorating and correcting mistaken beliefs (where agents move toward the correct mean), large networks appear to maintain and strengthen them. As such, large networks may increase the potential for belief polarization, extreme beliefs, and conspiratorial thinking – even amongst Bayesian agents.
| Type: | Proceedings paper |
|---|---|
| Title: | Growing a Bayesian Conspiracy Theorist: An Agent-Based Model |
| Event: | CogSci 2017: 39th Annual Meetng of the Cognitive Science Society, 26-29 July 2017, London, UK |
| Location: | London, UK |
| Dates: | 26 July 2017 - 29 July 2017 |
| ISBN-13: | 9780991196760 |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Publisher version: | https://mindmodeling.org/cogsci2017/papers/0503/in... |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This is the published version of record. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Conspiratorial thinking; Extreme beliefs; Agent-Based Models; Bayesian updating |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1570313 |
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