Tsioulou, A; Taflanidis, A; Galasso, C; (2017) Hazard Compatible Stochastic Ground Motion Modelling. In: Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability (ICOSSAR12). International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability (ICOSSAR): Vienna, Austria.

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Abstract

This paper discusses a computationally efficient framework for the hazard-compatible tuning of existing stochastic ground motion models. The tuning pertains to the modification of the probabilistic predictive relationships that relate the ground motion model parameters to seismicity characteristics, whereas the seismic hazard is quantified through ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), which for a specified earthquake scenario and period range provide information for both the conditional mean and the dispersion (variability) of the resultant spectral accelerations. The proposed modification is defined as an optimization problem with a dual objective. The first objective corresponds to comparison for a chosen earthquake scenario between the regional conditional hazard and the predictions established through the stochastic ground motion model. The second objective corresponds to comparison of the new predictive relationships with the pre-existing predictive relationships, developed considering regional data. This second objective guarantees that the resultant ground motions not only match the regional hazard (objective one) but are also compatible with observed trends. The relative entropy is adopted to quantify both objectives since they are both related to comparison between probability distributions, and a computational framework relying on Kriging surrogate modeling is established for an efficient optimization.

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