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An epidemiological modelling study to estimate the composition of HIV-positive populations including migrants from endemic settings

Nakagawa, Fumiyo; (2016) An epidemiological modelling study to estimate the composition of HIV-positive populations including migrants from endemic settings. AIDS , 31 (3) pp. 417-425. 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001329. Green open access

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Abstract

OBJECTIVE: Migrants account for a significant number of people living with HIV in Europe, and it is important to fully consider this population in national estimates. Using a novel approach with the UK as an example, we present key public health measures of the HIV epidemic, taking into account both in-country infections and infections likely to have been acquired abroad. DESIGN: Mathematical model calibrated to extensive data sources. METHODS: An individual-based stochastic simulation model is used to calibrate to routinely collected surveillance data in the UK. Data on number of new HIV diagnoses, number of deaths, CD4 cell count at diagnosis, as well as time of arrival into the UK for migrants and the annual number of people receiving care were used. RESULTS: An estimated 106 400 (90% plausibility range: 88 700-124 600) people were living with HIV in the UK in 2013. Twenty-three percent of these people, 24 600 (15 000-36 200) were estimated to be undiagnosed; this number has remained stable over the last decade. An estimated 32% of the total undiagnosed population had CD4 cell count less than 350 cells/μl in 2013. Twenty-five and 23% of black African men and women heterosexuals living with HIV were undiagnosed respectively. CONCLUSION: We have shown a working example to characterize the HIV population in a European context which incorporates migrants from countries with generalized epidemics. Despite all aspects of HIV care being free and widely available to anyone in need in the UK, there is still a substantial number of people who are not yet diagnosed and thus not in care.

Type: Article
Title: An epidemiological modelling study to estimate the composition of HIV-positive populations including migrants from endemic settings
Location: England
Identifier: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001329
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001329
Additional information: Copyright © 2016 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.
Keywords: HIV; Mathematical modelling; epidemiology; UK; undiagnosed infections
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute for Global Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute for Global Health > Infection and Population Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health > Population, Policy and Practice Dept
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1536280
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