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Modelling energy transitions for climate targets under landscape and actor inertia

Li, FGN; Strachan, N; (2017) Modelling energy transitions for climate targets under landscape and actor inertia. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions , 24 pp. 106-129. 10.1016/j.eist.2016.08.002. Green open access

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Abstract

The speed at which established socioeconomic and technological systems can be adapted to alternatives that are compatible with a climate stabilised, 2. C world remains unknown. Quantitative models used for assessing this challenge typically make a number of arguably optimistic assumptions regarding human behaviour and decision making. This often restricts the insights produced to futures approximating a so-called . first-best policy landscape. However, empirical studies of socio-technical change have shown that technological diffusion is often influenced by actors and institutions interacting under less ideal, . second-best conditions. This paper quantifies these factors in a formal energy model as . landscape and actor inertia and employs them for the first time in BLUE, a dynamic stochastic socio-technical simulation of technology diffusion, energy and emissions inspired by the multi-level perspective. Using the UK energy system as an example, the results illustrate how socio-technical inertia may significantly blunt future efforts to achieve climate targets.

Type: Article
Title: Modelling energy transitions for climate targets under landscape and actor inertia
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.eist.2016.08.002
Publisher version: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2016.08.002
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This is an Open Access article made available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Non-derivative 4.0 International license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). This license allows you to share, copy, distribute and transmit the work for personal and non-commercial use providing author and publisher attribution is clearly stated. Further details about CC BY licenses are available at http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0. Access may be initially restricted by the publisher.
Keywords: Socio-technical change; Transitions; Energy systems; Modelling; Decarbonisation; Climate policy
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1508418
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