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Evaluating the accuracy of CFSR reanalysis hourly wind speed forecasts for the UK, using in situ measurements and geographical information

Sharp, E; Dodds, P; Barrett, M; Spataru, C; (2015) Evaluating the accuracy of CFSR reanalysis hourly wind speed forecasts for the UK, using in situ measurements and geographical information. RENEWABLE ENERGY , 77 pp. 527-538. 10.1016/j.renene.2014.12.025. Green open access

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Abstract

Climate data can be used in simulations to estimate the output of wind turbines in locations where meteorological observations are not available. We perform the most comprehensive evaluation of the NCEP CFSR reanalysis model hourly wind speed hindcasts to date, and the first for the UK, by correlating the data against 264 onshore and 12 offshore synoptic weather stations, over a period of 30 years. The correlation of CFSR data to in situ measurements is similar to alternative approaches used in other studies both onshore and offshore. We investigate the impact of the topography, land use and mean wind speed on the onshore locations for the first time. The analysis of these spatial factors shows that CFSR represents the variety of terrain over UK well, and that the worst correlated sites are those at the highest elevations.

Type: Article
Title: Evaluating the accuracy of CFSR reanalysis hourly wind speed forecasts for the UK, using in situ measurements and geographical information
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.12.025
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2014.12.025
Additional information: © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Keywords: Wind - simulation, Reanalysis, NCEP - CFSR, Spatial, Offshore, Wind
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1461366
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