UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Killing Range: Explaining Lethality Variance Within a Terrorist Organization

Asal, V; Gill, P; Rethemeyer, K; Horgan, J; (2014) Killing Range: Explaining Lethality Variance Within a Terrorist Organization. Journal of Conflict Resolution: research on war and peace between and within nations , 59 (3) pp. 401-427. 10.1177/0022002713508927. Green open access

[thumbnail of Journal_of_Conflict_Resolution-2015-Asal-401-27.pdf] PDF
Journal_of_Conflict_Resolution-2015-Asal-401-27.pdf

Download (376kB)

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the Provisional Irish Republican Army's (PIRA) brigade level behavior during the Northern Ireland Conflict (1970-1998) and identifies the organizational factors that impact a brigade's lethality as measured via terrorist attacks. Key independent variables include levels of technical expertise, cadre age, counter-terrorism policies experienced, brigade size, and IED components and delivery methods. We find that technical expertise within a brigade allows for careful IED usage, which significantly minimizes civilian casualties (a specific strategic goal of PIRA) while increasing the ability to kill more high value targets with IEDs. Lethal counter-terrorism events also significantly affect a brigade's likelihood of killing both civilians and high-value targets but in different ways. Killing PIRA members significantly decreases IED fatalities but also significantly decreases the possibility of zero civilian IED-related deaths in a given year. Killing innocent Catholics in a Brigade's county significantly increases total and civilian IED fatalities. Together the results suggest the necessity to analyze dynamic situational variables that impact terrorist group behavior at the sub-unit level.

Type: Article
Title: Killing Range: Explaining Lethality Variance Within a Terrorist Organization
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1177/0022002713508927
Publisher version: http://jcr.sagepub.com/content/early/2013/10/30/00...
Additional information: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 License (http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/) which permits non-commercial use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access page (http://www.uk.sagepub.com/aboutus/openaccess.htm).
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Security and Crime Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1360092
Downloads since deposit
136Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item