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Economic voting in a crisis: The Irish election of 2011

Marsh, M; Mikhaylov, S; (2012) Economic voting in a crisis: The Irish election of 2011. Electoral Studies , 31 (3) pp. 478-484. 10.1016/j.electstud.2012.02.010. Green open access

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Abstract

The paper explores a question raised by the 2011 Irish election, which saw an almost unprecedented decline in support for a major governing party after an economic collapse that necessitated an ECB/IMF ‘bailout’. This seems a classic case of ‘economic voting’ in which a government is punished for incompetent performance. How did the government lose this support: gradually, as successive economic indicators appeared negative, or dramatically, following major shocks? The evidence points to losses at two critical junctures. This is consistent with an interpretation of the link between economics and politics that allows for qualitative judgements by voters in assigning credit and blame for economic performance.

Type: Article
Title: Economic voting in a crisis: The Irish election of 2011
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2012.02.010
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2012.02.010
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © 2012. This manuscript version is published under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Non-derivative 4.0 International licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). This licence allows you to share, copy, distribute and transmit the work for personal and non-commercial use providing author and publisher attribution is clearly stated. Further details about CC BY licences are available at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0.
Keywords: Economic voting, Irish elections, Economic crises, Credit and blame, Time series, Vote function
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Political Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1357796
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