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Further decompensation in cirrhosis. Results of a large multicenter cohort study supporting Baveno VII statements

D'Amico, Gennaro; Zipprich, Alexander; Villanueva, Candid; Sorda, Juan Antonio; Morillas, Rosa Maria; Garcovich, Matteo; Garcia Retortillo, Montserrat; ... Garcia-Tsao, Guadalupe; + view all (2024) Further decompensation in cirrhosis. Results of a large multicenter cohort study supporting Baveno VII statements. Hepatology , 79 (4) pp. 869-881. 10.1097/HEP.0000000000000652. Green open access

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Abstract

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The prognostic weight of further decompensation in cirrhosis is still unclear. We investigated the incidence of further decompensation and its effect on mortality in patients with cirrhosis. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Multicenter cohort study. The cumulative incidence of further decompensation (development of a second event or complication of a decompensating event) was assessed using competing risks analysis in 2028 patients. A 4-state model was built: first decompensation, further decompensation, liver transplant, and death. A cause-specific Cox model was used to assess the adjusted effect of further decompensation on mortality. Sensitivity analyses were performed for patients included before or after 1999. In a mean follow-up of 43 months, 1192 patients developed further decompensation and 649 died. Corresponding 5-year cumulative incidences were 52% and 35%, respectively. The cumulative incidences of death and liver transplant after further decompensation were 55% and 9.7%, respectively. The most common further decompensating event was ascites/complications of ascites. Five-year probabilities of state occupation were 24% alive with first decompensation, 21% alive with further decompensation, 7% alive with a liver transplant, 16% dead after first decompensation without further decompensation, 31% dead after further decompensation, and <1% dead after liver transplant. The HR for death after further decompensation, adjusted for known prognostic indicators, was 1.46 (95% CI: 1.23–1.71) (p<0.001). The significant impact of further decompensation on survival was confirmed in patients included before or after 1999. CONCLUSIONS: In cirrhosis, further decompensation occurs in ~60% of patients, significantly increases mortality, and should be considered a more advanced stage of decompensated cirrhosis.

Type: Article
Title: Further decompensation in cirrhosis. Results of a large multicenter cohort study supporting Baveno VII statements
Location: United States
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1097/HEP.0000000000000652
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/hep.0000000000000652
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Medicine
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Medicine > Inst for Liver and Digestive Hlth
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10190481
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