Choi, JM;
Sung, S;
Park, SK;
Park, S;
Kim, H;
Cho, MC;
Williams, B;
(2024)
SCORE and SCORE2 in East Asian Population: A Performance Comparison.
JACC: Asia
10.1016/j.jacasi.2023.10.013.
(In press).
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) and SCORE2-Older Persons (OP) models have been proposed as new cardiovascular risk evaluation tools. OBJECTIVES: Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) and SCORE2-Older Persons (OP) models have been proposed as new cardiovascular risk evaluation tools. METHODS: A total of 324,384 NHIS examinees from 2004 to 2005 were divided into 5 age groups: 40-49 years, 50-59 years, 60-69 years,70-79 years, and more than 80 years. The examinees had their predicted cardiovascular disease risks calculated by using SCORE, SCORE2, SCORE-OP, and SCORE2-OP models. The low-risk model was applied on the basis of the cohort’s observed event rates. The observed and predicted cardiovascular risks were compared. RESULTS: A total of 324,384 subjects were included (mean age 51.4 ± 7.3 years; women, 37.9% for the SCORE/SCORE2 group and mean age 73.0 ± 2.8 years; women, 47.5% for the SCORE/SCORE2-OP group). Over a median follow-up of 9 years, cardiovascular events occurred in 15.0% and 28.9% in SCORE/SCORE2 and SCORE/SCORE2-OP groups, respectively. The SCORE/SCORE-OP model underestimated cardiovascular disease risk in young men (aged 40-49 years) and women (aged 40-59 years) and overestimated it in older age groups. In contrast, SCORE2/SCORE2-OP invariably overestimated the risk in all age groups and sexes. SCORE2/SCORE2-OP showed no improvement in Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) compared with SCORE/SCORE-OP. Calibration plots favored SCORE2 over SCORE but not SCORE2-OP over SCORE-OP. CONCLUSIONS: Both SCORE2/SCORE2-OP and SCORE/SCORE-OP overestimated cardiovascular disease risk with low performance. SCORE2/SCORE2-OP showed slight improvement over older versions, but modifications are necessary for the East Asian population.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | SCORE and SCORE2 in East Asian Population: A Performance Comparison |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jacasi.2023.10.013 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jacasi.2023.10.013 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier on behalf of the American College of Cardiology Foundation under a Creative Commons license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
| Keywords: | Asian population, cardiovascular disease, Systematic COronary, Risk Evaluation, validity |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Cardiovascular Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Cardiovascular Science > Population Science and Experimental Medicine |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10187462 |
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