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The potential smoke-free dividend across local areas in England: A cross-sectional analysis

Morris, Damon; Gillespie, Duncan; Dockrell, Martin; Cook, Mark; Horton, Marie; Brown, James; Langley, Tessa; (2024) The potential smoke-free dividend across local areas in England: A cross-sectional analysis. Tobacco Control (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

Background: The value that might be added to local economies each year through the money that people who smoke tobacco would save if everyone quit smoking is called the “smoke-free dividend”. This study aimed to estimate the value of the smoke-free dividend across local areas in England, and how it relates to the average income in those areas. / Methods: The study was a cross-sectional descriptive analysis of tobacco expenditure from the Smoking Toolkit Study (STS) matched to income and smoking prevalence data for English local authorities. The STS sample was from 2014–2020 and comprised 18,721 adults who smoke cigarettes. Self-reported expenditure estimates from the STS were adjusted for underreporting. This adjustment aimed to align the total expenditure estimate with figures derived from government tax receipts and national estimates of illicit tobacco use. The smoke-free dividend is calculated as 93% of spending on legal tobacco, which is the percentage estimated to leave the local economy, plus 100% of spending on illicit tobacco. / Results: The total dividend in England is estimated to be £10.9 billion each year, which equates to £1,776 per person who smokes or £246 per adult regardless of smoking status. The estimated dividend is greater in areas with lower average income, with a correlation coefficient of -0.521 (95% Confidence Interval: -0.629, -0.392) between the average income of local areas and the dividend per adult. / Conclusions: This study has estimated that local economies could gain a substantial dividend if everybody stopped smoking, which is larger in lower-income areas, meaning that geographic economic inequalities could be reduced.

Type: Article
Title: The potential smoke-free dividend across local areas in England: A cross-sectional analysis
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Behavioural Science and Health
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10186374
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