Matthew, Chris;
Spataru, Catalina;
(2023)
Time-Use Data Modelling of Domestic, Commercial and Industrial Electricity Demand for the Scottish Islands.
Energies
, 16
(13)
, Article 5057. 10.3390/en16135057.
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Abstract
Achieving emissions reduction targets requires improved energy efficiency to avoid an oversized and excessively expensive electricity network. This can be analysed using hourly demand modelling that captures behaviour profiles, technology types, weather factors and building typologies. Numerous domestic models exist, but whole systems energy modelling, including commercial and industrial demand, are limited by data availability. Time-use survey data has typically been used to model domestic demand- in this work is expanded to also model commercial and industrial electricity-heating for the Scottish islands at an hourly and individual building level. This method is widely applicable for modelling whole system energy demand wherever time-use survey data are available. Combinatorial optimisation has been applied to generate a synthetic population, match individuals to properties and apply construction types to building polygons. SimStock is used for heating and lighting modelling. Validation of the model with 2016 data shows that it reflects longer term trends, with a monthly mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.6% and an R2 of 0.99. At the hourly level, the MAPE of 6.2% and R2 of 0.87 show the model captures variability needed to combine it with a supply-side model. Dataset accuracy, variability in the date recorded, missing data and unknown data correlations are discussed as causes for error. The model can be adapted for other regions and used to analyse the costs and benefits of energy efficiency measures with a supply-side generation model.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Time-Use Data Modelling of Domestic, Commercial and Industrial Electricity Demand for the Scottish Islands |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.3390/en16135057 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.3390/en16135057 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
| Keywords: | electricity demand modelling; Scottish Islands; hourly demand; time-use data; demand forecasting; domestic; commercial and industrial |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10172711 |
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