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Predicting COVID-19 outcomes from clinical and laboratory parameters in an intensive care facility during the second wave of the pandemic in South Africa

Allwood, BW; Koegelenberg, CF; Ngah, VD; Sigwadhi, LN; Irusen, EM; Lalla, U; Yalew, A; ... Nyasulu, PS; + view all (2022) Predicting COVID-19 outcomes from clinical and laboratory parameters in an intensive care facility during the second wave of the pandemic in South Africa. IJID Regions , 3 pp. 242-247. 10.1016/j.ijregi.2022.03.024. Green open access

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Abstract

Background: The second wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South Africa was caused by the Beta variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirurus-2. This study aimed to explore clinical and biochemical parameters that could predict outcome in patients with COVID-19. Methods: A prospective study was conducted between 5 November 2020 and 30 April 2021 among patients with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary hospital. The Cox proportional hazards model in Stata 16 was used to assess risk factors associated with survival or death. Factors with P<0.05 were considered significant. Results: Patients who died were found to have significantly lower median pH (P<0.001), higher median arterial partial pressure of carbon dioxide (P<0.001), higher D-dimer levels (P=0.001), higher troponin T levels (P=0.001), higher N-terminal-prohormone B-type natriuretic peptide levels (P=0.007) and higher C-reactive protein levels (P=0.010) compared with patients who survived. Increased standard bicarbonate (HCO3std) was associated with lower risk of death (hazard ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.93–0.99). Conclusions: The mortality of patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU was associated with elevated D-dimer and a low HCO3std level. Large studies are warranted to increase the identification of patients at risk of poor prognosis, and to improve the clinical approach.

Type: Article
Title: Predicting COVID-19 outcomes from clinical and laboratory parameters in an intensive care facility during the second wave of the pandemic in South Africa
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijregi.2022.03.024
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijregi.2022.03.024
Language: English
Additional information: © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases under a Creative Commons license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Infection and Immunity
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10168295
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