Wang, Chenbo; Costa, Rodrigo; Baker, Jack W; (2022) Assessing Post-earthquake Housing Needs to Inform Recovery Planning. In: Proceedings of the 12th National Conference in Earthquake Engineering. EERI: Salt Lake City, UT, USA.

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Abstract

Residential damage from major disasters often displaces residents out of their homes and into temporary housing. Communities tend to rely on out-of-town contractors for post-disaster housing recovery, and these contractors also need temporary housing. The conflicting housing needs from the displaced residents and out-of-town contractors create pressure on the local available housing stock. Communities that prepare for temporary housing demand can minimize the impact on residents and expedite housing recovery efforts. This study uses simulation models to investigate the housing recovery of San Francisco after a hypothetical M7.2 earthquake. The earthquake is expected to significantly damage about 17,000 homes and displace their occupants. A peak demand for 4,000 out-of-town contractor crews following the earthquake is identified. The total temporary housing demand of 20,000 units can stress the local housing market and expose the displaced population to longer periods of housing instability. These results highlight the need to plan for a surge of out-of-town contractors and a shortage of temporary housing during the recovery phase.

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