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Multi-level emulation of tsunami simulations over Cilacap, South Java, Indonesia

Ehara, Ayao; Salmanidou, Dimitra M; Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Guillas, Serge; (2022) Multi-level emulation of tsunami simulations over Cilacap, South Java, Indonesia. Computational Geosciences 10.1007/s10596-022-10183-1. (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

Carrying out a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) requires a large number of simulations done at a high resolution. Statistical emulation builds a surrogate to replace the simulator and thus reduces computational costs when propagating uncertainties from the earthquake sources to the tsunami inundations. To reduce further these costs, we propose here to build emulators that exploit multiple levels of resolution and a sequential design of computer experiments. By running a few tsunami simulations at high resolution and many more simulations at lower resolutions we are able to provide realistic assessments whereas, for the same budget, using only the high resolution tsunami simulations do not provide a satisfactory outcome. As a result, PTHA can be considered with higher precision using the highest spatial resolutions, and for impacts over larger regions. We provide an illustration to the city of Cilacap in Indonesia that demonstrates the benefit of our approach.

Type: Article
Title: Multi-level emulation of tsunami simulations over Cilacap, South Java, Indonesia
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1007/s10596-022-10183-1
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10596-022-10183-1
Language: English
Additional information: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Keywords: Gaussian process, Multi-fidelity, Emulation, Experimental design, Uncertainty propagation, Hazard assessment
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Statistical Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10162391
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