Vernon, I;
Owen, J;
Aylett-Bullock, J;
Cuesta-Lazaro, C;
Frawley, J;
Quera-Bofarull, A;
Sedgewick, A;
... Krauss, F; + view all
(2022)
Bayesian emulation and history matching of JUNE.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
, 380
(2233)
, Article 20220039. 10.1098/rsta.2022.0039.
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Abstract
We analyze JUNE: a detailed model of COVID-19 transmission with high spatial and demographic resolution, developed as part of the RAMP initiative. JUNE requires substantial computational resources to evaluate, making model calibration and general uncertainty analysis extremely challenging. We describe and employ the uncertainty quantification approaches of Bayes linear emulation and history matching to mimic JUNE and to perform a global parameter search, hence identifying regions of parameter space that produce acceptable matches to observed data, and demonstrating the capability of such methods. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Bayesian emulation and history matching of JUNE |
| Location: | England |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1098/rsta.2022.0039 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0039 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. |
| Keywords: | Bayes linear, calibration, disease models, emulation, history matching, Bayes Theorem, COVID-19, Humans, Uncertainty |
| UCL classification: | UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Computer Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10156844 |
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