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Grade Expectations: How well can past performance predict future grades?

Macmillan, Lindsey; Wyness, Gill; Anders, Jake; Dilnot, Catherine; (2022) Grade Expectations: How well can past performance predict future grades? Education Economics 10.1080/09645292.2022.2113861. (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

Students in the UK apply to university with teacher-predicted examination grades, rather than actual results. These predictions have been shown to be inaccurate, and to favour certain groups, leading to concerns about teacher bias. We ask whether it is possible to improve on the accuracy of teachers’ predictions by predicting pupil achievement using prior attainment data and machine learning techniques. While our models do lead to a quantitative improvement on teacher predictions, substantial inaccuracies remain. Our models also underpredict high-achieving state school pupils and low socio-economic status pupils, suggesting they have more volatile education trajectories. This raises questions about the use of predictions in the UK system.

Type: Article
Title: Grade Expectations: How well can past performance predict future grades?
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1080/09645292.2022.2113861
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1080/09645292.2022.2113861
Language: English
Additional information: This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way.
Keywords: Socio-economic status, predicted grades, widening participation
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education > UCL Institute of Education
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education > UCL Institute of Education > IOE - Learning and Leadership > Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education
UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education > UCL Institute of Education > IOE - Learning and Leadership
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10153623
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