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A 10-year Review of TB Notifications and Mortality Trends Using a Joint Point Analysis in Zambia - a High TB burden country

Lungu, Patrick; Kasapo, Clara; Mihova, Reford; Chimzizi, Rhehab; Sikazwe, Lyapa; Banda, Isaac; Mucheleng'anga, Luchenga Adam; ... Mwaba, Peter; + view all (2022) A 10-year Review of TB Notifications and Mortality Trends Using a Joint Point Analysis in Zambia - a High TB burden country. International Journal of Infectious Diseases 10.1016/j.ijid.2022.03.046. (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Zambia is one of the TB high-burden countries. It is important to track the progress being made towards enhancing case finding and reducing mortality. We reviewed routine TB notifications and mortality trends, over a decade from all facilities in Zambia. METHODS: A 10-year retrospective study of TB notifications and mortality trends was performed using a Joint Point Analysis version 4.9.0.0, NCI. We extracted the annual national TB program data for the period under review. RESULTS: There was a decline in annual point average for notification between 2010 and 2020 in both males and females, but the females notification rates had a higher rate of decline (AAPC = -6.7, 95%CI:-8.3 to -5.0), p<0.001) compared to the decline in males notification rate (AAPC = -4.1, 95%CI:-4.1 to -5.1, P<0.001). We found a significant growth rate in the proportion of TB patients that were bacteriologically confirmed (AAPC = 6.1, 95% CI: 3.6 to 8.7, p< 0.001), while the proportion of clinically diagnosed patients declined (AAPC= -0.1, 95%CI: -2.3 to 2.1, p<0.001). Notification of drug-resistant TB increased exponentially (AAPC=27.3, 95% CI: 13 to 41), p< 0.001) while mortality rate declined from 21.3 in 2011 to 12.7 in 2019 per 100,000 population (AAP=-5.6, 95%CI: -9.6 to -1.5, p=0.008). CONCLUSIONS: This study has illustrated the importance of reviewing and analyzing routinely collected TB data by national programs. The study revealed areas of improvement in terms of TB control and underscores the need for increased and sustained investment in case detection and diagnostics.

Type: Article
Title: A 10-year Review of TB Notifications and Mortality Trends Using a Joint Point Analysis in Zambia - a High TB burden country
Location: Canada
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2022.03.046
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2022.03.046
Language: English
Additional information: © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Keywords: Annual percent change, Drug resistant TB, Mortality, TB notifications
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Infection and Immunity
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10146786
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