Huang, Wan Ting Katty;
Braithwaite, Isobel;
Charlton-Perez, Andrew;
Sarran, Christophe;
Sun, Ting;
(2022)
Non-linear response of temperature-related mortality risk to global warming in England and Wales.
Environmental Research Letters
10.1088/1748-9326/ac50d5.
(In press).
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Abstract
Climate change is expected to lead to changes in seasonal temperature-related mortality. However, this impact on health risk does not necessarily scale linearly with increasing temperature. By examining changes in risk relative to degrees of global warming, we show that there is a delayed emergence of the increase in the summer mean mortality risk in England and Wales. Due to the relatively mild summer mean temperatures under the current climate and the non-linearity of the exposure-response relationships, minimal changes in summer mean risk are expected at lower levels of warming and an escalation in risk is projected beyond 2.5°C of global warming relative to pre-industrial levels. In contrast, a 42% increase in mortality risk during summer heat extremes is already expected by 2°C global warming. Winter attributable mortalities, on the other hand, are projected to decrease largely linearly with global warming in England and Wales.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Non-linear response of temperature-related mortality risk to global warming in England and Wales |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac50d5 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac50d5 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | As the Version of Record of this article is going to be/has been published on a gold open access basis under a CC BY 3.0 licence, this Accepted Manuscript is available for reuse under a CC BY 3.0 licence immediately. Although reasonable endeavours have been taken to obtain all necessary permissions from third parties to include their copyrighted content within this article, their full citation and copyright line may not be present in this Accepted Manuscript version. Before using any content from this article, please refer to the Version of Record on IOPscience once published for full citation and copyright details, as permission may be required. All third party content is fully copyright protected, and is not published on a gold open access basis under a CC BY licence, unless that is specifically stated in the figure caption in the Version of Record. |
| UCL classification: | UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10143583 |
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