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Regional excess mortality during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in five European countries

Konstantinoudis, Garyfallos; Cameletti, Michela; Gomez-Rubio, Virgilio; Gomez, Inmaculada Leon; Pirani, Monica; Baio, Gianluca; Larrauri, Amparo; ... Blangiardo, Marta; + view all (2022) Regional excess mortality during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in five European countries. Nature Communications , 13 , Article 482. 10.1038/s41467-022-28157-3. Green open access

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Abstract

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess mortality from all causes in 2020 varied across and within European countries. Using data for 2015-2019, we applied Bayesian spatio-temporal models to quantify the expected weekly deaths at the regional level had the pandemic not occurred in England, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. With around 30%, Madrid, Castile-La Mancha, Castile-Leon (Spain) and Lombardia (Italy) were the regions with the highest excess mortality. In England, Greece and Switzerland, the regions most affected were Outer London and the West Midlands (England), Eastern, Western and Central Macedonia (Greece), and Ticino (Switzerland), with 15-20% excess mortality in 2020. Our study highlights the importance of the large transportation hubs for establishing community transmission in the first stages of the pandemic. Here, we show that acting promptly to limit transmission around these hubs is essential to prevent spread to other regions and countries.

Type: Article
Title: Regional excess mortality during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in five European countries
Location: England
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28157-3
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28157-3
Language: English
Additional information: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Keywords: Science & Technology, Multidisciplinary Sciences, Science & Technology - Other Topics, HEALTH, DELAYS, CARE, UK
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Statistical Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10143258
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