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Towards a population-based threshold of protection for COVID-19 vaccines

Goldblatt, D; Fiore-Gartland, A; Johnson, M; Hunt, A; Bengt, C; Zavadska, D; Snipe, HD; ... Ambrosino, D; + view all (2021) Towards a population-based threshold of protection for COVID-19 vaccines. Vaccine 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.12.006. (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

Correlates of protection for COVID-19 vaccines are urgently needed to license additional vaccines. We measured immune responses to four COVID-19 vaccines of proven efficacy using a single serological platform. IgG anti-Spike antibodies were highly correlated with ID50 neutralization in a validated pseudoviral assay and correlated significantly with efficacies for protection against infection with wild-type, alpha and delta variant SARS-CoV-2 virus. The protective threshold for each vaccine was calculated for IgG anti-Spike antibody. The mean protective threshold for all vaccine studies for WT virus was 154 BAU/ml (95 %CI 42–559), and for studies with antibody distributions that enabled precise estimation of thresholds (i.e. leaving out 2-dose mRNA regimens) was 60 BAU/ml (95 %CI 35–102). We propose that the proportion of individuals with responses above the appropriate protective threshold together with the geometric mean concentration can be used in comparative non-inferiority studies with licensed vaccines to ensure that new vaccines will be efficacious.

Type: Article
Title: Towards a population-based threshold of protection for COVID-19 vaccines
Location: Netherlands
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.12.006
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.12.006
Language: English
Additional information: © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Keywords: COVID vaccines, COVID-19, Correlates of protection, SARS-CoV-2
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Medicine
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Medicine > Respiratory Medicine
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health > Infection, Immunity and Inflammation Dept
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10140910
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