Bryson, A;
Blanchflower, D;
(2022)
The Sahm Rule and Predicting the Great Recession across OECD Countries.
National Institute Economic Review
10.1017/nie.2021.47.
(In press).
Preview |
Text
Bryson_final sahm rule nov 11 niesr final.pdf - Accepted Version Download (800kB) | Preview |
Abstract
We examine the start date of the Great Recession across OECD countries. The Sahm Rule identifies the start of recession in the US to the beginning of 2008 but in most other OECD countries it identifies the start after that identified by two successive falls in quarterly GDP. We establish our own rule for predicting recession using the fear of unemployment series to predict recession. We show a 10-point rise in the series compared to its previous 12 month low predicted the onset of the Great Recession in both the United States and Europe.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | The Sahm Rule and Predicting the Great Recession across OECD Countries |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1017/nie.2021.47 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.47 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Great Recession, business cycle, turning points, Sahm Rule, fear of unemployment |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education > UCL Institute of Education UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education > UCL Institute of Education > IOE - Social Research Institute |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10140211 |
Archive Staff Only
 |
View Item |
