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The Sahm Rule and Predicting the Great Recession across OECD Countries

Bryson, A; Blanchflower, D; (2022) The Sahm Rule and Predicting the Great Recession across OECD Countries. National Institute Economic Review (In press).

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Abstract

We examine the value of qualitative data such as fear of unemployment in predicting the Great Recession across OECD countries, identifying the on-set of recession as two successive quarters of negative GDP growth. We show that the Sahm Rule does a good job identifying the start of recession in the United States but performs more poorly elsewhere in the OECD. We establish our own rule for predicting recession using the fear of unemployment series to predict recession. This rule, together with others based on qualitative data, perform better than the Sahm Rule at predicting the Great Recession across the OECD.

Type: Article
Title: The Sahm Rule and Predicting the Great Recession across OECD Countries
Publisher version: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/national-i...
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Great Recession, business cycle, turning points, Sahm Rule, fear of unemployment
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education > UCL Institute of Education
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education > UCL Institute of Education > IOE - Social Research Institute
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10140211
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