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Household serial interval of COVID-19 and the effect of Variant B.1.1.7: analyses from prospective community cohort study (Virus Watch) [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]

Geismar, C; Fragaszy, E; Nguyen, V; Fong, WLE; Shrotri, M; Beale, S; Rodger, A; ... Virus Watch Collaborative; + view all (2021) Household serial interval of COVID-19 and the effect of Variant B.1.1.7: analyses from prospective community cohort study (Virus Watch) [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]. Wellcome Open Research , 6 , Article 224. 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16974.2. Green open access

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Abstract

Introduction: Increased transmissibility of B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) in the UK may explain its rapid emergence and global spread. We analysed data from putative household infector - infectee pairs in the Virus Watch Community cohort study to assess the serial interval of COVID-19 and whether this was affected by emergence of the B.1.1.7 variant. / Methods: The Virus Watch study is an online, prospective, community cohort study following up entire households in England and Wales during the COVID-19 pandemic. Putative household infector-infectee pairs were identified where more than one person in the household had a positive swab matched to an illness episode. Data on whether or not individual infections were caused by the B.1.1.7 variant were not available. We therefore developed a classification system based on the percentage of cases estimated to be due to B.1.1.7 in national surveillance data for different English regions and study weeks. / Results: Out of 24,887 illnesses reported, 915 tested positive for SARSCoV-2 and 186 likely ‘infector-infectee’ pairs in 186 households amongst 372 individuals were identified. The mean COVID-19 serial interval was 3.18 (95%CI: 2.55 - 3.81) days. There was no significant difference (p=0.267) between the mean serial interval for VOC hotspots (mean = 3.64 days, (95%CI: 2.55 – 4.73)) days and non-VOC hotspots, (mean = 2.72 days, (95%CI: 1.48 – 3.96)).

Type: Article
Title: Household serial interval of COVID-19 and the effect of Variant B.1.1.7: analyses from prospective community cohort study (Virus Watch) [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16974.2
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16974.2
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright: © 2021 Geismar C et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, variant of concern, B.1.1.7, serial interval, epidemiology, UK
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute for Global Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute for Global Health > Infection and Population Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Epidemiology and Public Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Health Informatics
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Health Informatics > Infectious Disease Informatics
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health > Population, Policy and Practice Dept
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Computer Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10140088
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