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Solely economic mitigation strategy suggests upward revision of nationally determined contributions

Yang, P; Mi, Z; Yao, Y-F; Cao, Y-F; Coffman, D; Liu, L-C; (2021) Solely economic mitigation strategy suggests upward revision of nationally determined contributions. One Earth , 4 (8) pp. 1150-1162. 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.07.005. Green open access

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Abstract

The use of equity principles to review the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) is critical to facilitating more ambitious climate actions. However, disagreement over the equity principles persists. We instead treat emission reduction as a solely economic behavior motivated by avoiding future economic damage from climate change. Assuming no international cooperation, we provide a solely economic mitigation pathway to review national climate pledges until 2100. Using the value in 2030 to review the NDCs, we find that the NDCs of China, the USA, and the EU are 1.5, 1.4, and 0.9 respective GtCO2eq lower than their solely economic emission levels, whereas India commits 3.8 GtCO2eq more than its solely economic emission level. We also propose an equal-effort cooperation scenario toward 2°C where each country reduces emissions by 28% of their solely economic levels in 2030. Through exploration of the economic trade-offs, our results suggest that more ambitious NDCs are urgently needed.

Type: Article
Title: Solely economic mitigation strategy suggests upward revision of nationally determined contributions
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.07.005
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.07.005
Language: English
Additional information: © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. under a Creative Commons license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Keywords: nationally determined contributions, Paris Agreement, equity principles, abatement cost, avoided climate damage, cost-benefit analysis, integrated assessment model, climate change
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education > UCL Institute of Education
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education > UCL Institute of Education > IOE - Social Research Institute
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > The Bartlett Sch of Const and Proj Mgt
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10133381
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