Roy, I; (2021) COVID-19 crisis- Influence of Temperature on the Global Spread and Alternative Exit strategy. Presented at: Virtual International Conference on COVID-19, Masvingo, Zimbabwe.

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Abstract

This study explored whether the global temperature had any role in the spread and vulnerability to COVID-19 and how that knowledge can be used to arrest the fast spreading disease. It highlighted that for transmitting the virus, global temperature played an important role and a moderately cool environment was the most favourable state. Whereas, the risk from the virus was reduced significantly for warm places and countries. Following the temperature of March and April, various degree of vulnerability was identified and countries were specified. Based on the variability of temperature, countries can even switch from one vulnerability state to another which is highly important for setting country-wise mitigation strategy. However, after the initiation of mass vaccination programme that pattern is disturbed and almost all countries experienced a sudden surge of transmission and most countries had to impose strict lockdown measures. Such observation and analyses raised major worries especially for highly populated developing countries like India, Brazil and the African continents among others and needs urgent attention. Some countries also showed a synchronized pattern between number of vaccine doses and cases. In that context, new variants and fast mutation of the virus after mass vaccination and possible mechanisms were discussed. The influence of temperature and results of previous clinical trials with similar viruses provided a useful insight that regulating the level of temperature can offer remarkable results to arrest and stop the outbreak. Based on that knowledge, some urgent and simple heat-based solutions were proposed as early as 17th March 2020, which are practically without side effects, no vested interest involved and very cost-effective too. If these simple heat-based solutions at initial stages of the disease become popular then people and government do not need to worry about mutated variants, long COVID, losing immunity after six months, further lockdown etc.

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