UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs

Gold, S; Donnelly, CA; Woodroffe, R; Nouvellet, P; (2021) Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases , 15 (7) , Article e0009581. 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009581. Green open access

[thumbnail of Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of ra.pdf]
Preview
Text
Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of ra.pdf - Published Version

Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract

A number of mathematical models have been developed for canine rabies to explore dynamics and inform control strategies. A common assumption of these models is that naturally acquired immunity plays no role in rabies dynamics. However, empirical studies have detected rabies-specific antibodies in healthy, unvaccinated domestic dogs, potentially due to immunizing, non-lethal exposure. We developed a stochastic model for canine rabies, parameterised for Laikipia County, Kenya, to explore the implications of different scenarios for naturally acquired immunity to rabies in domestic dogs. Simulating these scenarios using a non-spatial model indicated that low levels of immunity can act to limit rabies incidence and prevent depletion of the domestic dog population, increasing the probability of disease persistence. However, incorporating spatial structure and human response to high rabies incidence allowed the virus to persist in the absence of immunity. While low levels of immunity therefore had limited influence under a more realistic approximation of rabies dynamics, high rates of exposure leading to immunizing non-lethal exposure were required to produce population-level seroprevalences comparable with those reported in empirical studies. False positives and/or spatial variation may contribute to high empirical seroprevalences. However, if high seroprevalences are related to high exposure rates, these findings support the need for high vaccination coverage to effectively control this disease.

Type: Article
Title: Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009581
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009581
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © 2021 Gold et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Keywords: Rabies, Immunity, Dogs, Domestic animals, Antibodies, Infectious disease epidemiology, Vaccination and immunization, Epidemiology
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences > Genetics, Evolution and Environment
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10130352
Downloads since deposit
20Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item