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Towards an ecosystem model of infectious disease

Hassell, JM; Newbold, T; Dobson, AP; Linton, Y-M; Franklinos, LHV; Zimmerman, D; Pagenkopp Lohan, KM; (2021) Towards an ecosystem model of infectious disease. Nature Ecology & Evolution , 5 pp. 907-918. 10.1038/s41559-021-01454-8. Green open access

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Abstract

Increasingly intimate associations between human society and the natural environment are driving the emergence of novel pathogens, with devastating consequences for humans and animals alike. Prior to emergence, these pathogens exist within complex ecological systems that are characterized by trophic interactions between parasites, their hosts and the environment. Predicting how disturbance to these ecological systems places people and animals at risk from emerging pathogens-and the best ways to manage this-remains a significant challenge. Predictive systems ecology models are powerful tools for the reconstruction of ecosystem function but have yet to be considered for modelling infectious disease. Part of this stems from a mistaken tendency to forget about the role that pathogens play in structuring the abundance and interactions of the free-living species favoured by systems ecologists. Here, we explore how developing and applying these more complete systems ecology models at a landscape scale would greatly enhance our understanding of the reciprocal interactions between parasites, pathogens and the environment, placing zoonoses in an ecological context, while identifying key variables and simplifying assumptions that underly pathogen host switching and animal-to-human spillover risk. As well as transforming our understanding of disease ecology, this would also allow us to better direct resources in preparation for future pandemics.

Type: Article
Title: Towards an ecosystem model of infectious disease
Location: England
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1038/s41559-021-01454-8
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-021-01454-8
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions.
Keywords: Ecological modelling, Epidemiology, Microbial ecology, Pathogens, Population dynamics
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences > Genetics, Evolution and Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute for Global Health
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10128335
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