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Effectiveness and resource requirements of test, trace and isolate strategies for COVID in the UK

He, B; Zaidi, S; Elesedy, B; Hutchinson, M; Paleyes, A; Harling, G; Johnson, AM; (2021) Effectiveness and resource requirements of test, trace and isolate strategies for COVID in the UK. Royal Society Open Science , 8 (3) , Article 201491. 10.1098/rsos.201491. Green open access

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Abstract

We use an individual-level transmission and contact simulation model to explore the effectiveness and resource requirements of various test-trace-isolate (TTI) strategies for reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK, in the context of different scenarios with varying levels of stringency of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Based on modelling results, we show that selfisolation of symptomatic individuals and quarantine of their household contacts has a substantial impact on the number of new infections generated by each primary case. We further show that adding contact tracing of non-household contacts of confirmed cases to this broader package of interventions reduces the number of new infections otherwise generated by 5–15%. We also explore impact of key factors, such as tracing application adoption and testing delay, on overall effectiveness of TTI.

Type: Article
Title: Effectiveness and resource requirements of test, trace and isolate strategies for COVID in the UK
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1098/rsos.201491
Publisher version: http://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201491
Language: English
Additional information: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Keywords: Science & Technology, Multidisciplinary Sciences, Science & Technology - Other Topics, COVID-19, contact tracing, test-trace-isolate, non-pharmaceutical interventions
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute for Global Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute for Global Health > Infection and Population Health
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10126529
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