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Predicting incremental and future visual change in neovascular age-related macular degeneration using deep learning

Fu, DJ; Faes, L; Wagner, SK; Moraes, G; Chopra, R; Patel, PJ; Balaskas, K; ... Keane, PA; + view all (2021) Predicting incremental and future visual change in neovascular age-related macular degeneration using deep learning. Ophthalmology Retina 10.1016/j.oret.2021.01.009. (In press).

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Abstract

PURPOSE: To evaluate the predictive utility of quantitative imaging biomarkers, acquired automatically from optical coherence tomography (OCT) scans, of cross-sectional and future visual outcomes of patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD) starting anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) therapy. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Treatment-naïve, first-treated eyes of patients with neovascular AMD between 2007 and 2017 at Moorfields Eye Hospital (a large, UK single-centre) undergoing anti-VEGF therapy METHODS: Automatic segmentation was carried out by applying a deep learning segmentation algorithm to 137,379 OCT scans from 6467 eyes of 3261 patients with neovascular AMD. After applying selection criteria 926 eyes of 926 patients were taken forward for analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Correlation coefficients (R2) and mean absolute error (MAE) between quantitative OCT (qOCT) parameters and cross-sectional visual-function. The predictive value of these parameters for short-term visual change i.e. incremental visual acuity [VA] resulting from an individual injection, as well as, VA at distant timepoints (up to 12 months post-baseline). RESULTS: VA at distant timepoints could be predicted: R2 0.80 (MAE 5.0 ETDRS letters) and R2 0.7 (MAE 7.2) post-injection 3 and at 12 months post-baseline (both p < 0.001), respectively. Best performing models included both baseline qOCT parameters and treatment-response. Furthermore, we present proof-of-principle evidence that the incremental change in VA from an injection can be predicted: R2 0.14 (MAE 5.6) for injection 2 and R2 0.11 (MAE 5.0) for injection 3 (both p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Automatic segmentation enables rapid acquisition of quantitative and reproducible OCT biomarkers with potential to inform treatment decisions in the care of neovascular AMD. This furthers development of point-of-care decision-aid systems for personalized medicine.

Type: Article
Title: Predicting incremental and future visual change in neovascular age-related macular degeneration using deep learning
Location: United States
DOI: 10.1016/j.oret.2021.01.009
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oret.2021.01.009
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Institute of Ophthalmology
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10122005
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