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Advancing the determinants of risky decision behaviour using conjoint and multi-level moderated mediation analysis

Bailey, Michael Karl; (2020) Advancing the determinants of risky decision behaviour using conjoint and multi-level moderated mediation analysis. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

Investment decision-making is an everyday activity within society. When these decisions involve innovation and require a willingness to innovate, additional complexities arise concerning uncertainty and decision irreversibility. This thesis investigates to what extent predictions of investment decision-making behaviour may be made based upon how varying levels of uncertainty and irreversibility affect perceptions of risk, how this may affect decision behaviour and how the strength of this effect may vary depending upon decision-maker risk propensity. In doing so, this thesis addresses important gaps found to exist at an intersection of the theory of innovation diffusion, the basic theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty and prospect theory. The research methodology employed for this purpose comprises full-profile conjoint value analysis and multi-level moderated mediation analysis. An online survey comprising ten conjoint tasks enables the conjoint analysis and provides the means to measure both perceptions of risk and risk propensity. The online survey itself relies upon an established case study titled ‘Carter Racing’. The results of this research find that a comprehensive set of relationships exist among the variables in question, from which valid and useful predictions may be made. Where a risk-averse relationship is shown to exist between decision-making behaviour and measures of uncertainty and irreversibility, it can also be shown that these relationships are exerted through and explained by perceptions of risk, with decision-maker risk propensity serving to influence the strength of the effects. In these cases, a significant positive correlation is observed between perceptions of risk and both uncertainty and irreversibility. A significant negative correlation is also observed between perceptions of risk and a willingness to innovate, this being the means through which innovativeness is measured. However, where a risk-seeking relationship is shown to exist, no significant correlations or effects are observed. These findings have important implications for theory and practice.

Type: Thesis (Doctoral)
Qualification: Ph.D
Title: Advancing the determinants of risky decision behaviour using conjoint and multi-level moderated mediation analysis
Event: UCL
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © The Author 2020. Original content in this thesis is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Any third-party copyright material present remains the property of its respective owner(s) and is licensed under its existing terms. Access may initially be restricted at the author’s request.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Engineering Science Faculty Office
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Space and Climate Physics
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10117755
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