Kruglanski, AW; Jasko, K; Friston, K; (2020) All Thinking is 'Wishful' Thinking. Trends in Cognitive Sciences , 24 (6) pp. 413-424. 10.1016/j.tics.2020.03.004.

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Abstract

Motivation to engage in any epistemic behavior can be decomposed into two basic types that emerge in various guises across different disciplines and areas of study. The first basic dimension refers to a desire to approach versus avoid nonspecific certainty, which has epistemic value. It describes a need for an unambiguous, precise answer to a question, regardless of that answer’s specific content. Second basic dimension refers to a desire to approach versus avoid specific certainty, which has instrumental value. It concerns a need for the specific content of one’s beliefs and prior preferences. Together, they explain diverse epistemic behaviors, such as seeking, avoiding, and biasing new information and revising and updating, versus protecting, one’s beliefs, when confronted with new evidence. The relative strength of these motivational components determines the form of (Bayes optimal) epistemic behavior that follows.

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