Li, R;
Chen, B;
Zhang, T;
Ren, Z;
Song, Y;
Xiao, Y;
Hou, L;
... Xu, B; + view all
(2020)
Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
, 117
(42)
pp. 26151-26157.
10.1073/pnas.2012002117.
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Abstract
Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves |
| Location: | United States |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1073/pnas.2012002117 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2012002117 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY) (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
| Keywords: | climate, human behavior, disease transmission, hierarchical intervention network, international collaboration |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10114137 |
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