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Exploring the role of mass immunisation in influenza pandemic preparedness: A modelling study for the UK context

Grieco, L; Panovska-Griffiths, J; van Leeuwen, E; Grove, P; Utley, M; (2020) Exploring the role of mass immunisation in influenza pandemic preparedness: A modelling study for the UK context. Vaccine 10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.06.032. (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

The nature and timing of the next influenza pandemic is unknown. This makes it difficult for policy makers to assess whether spending money now to prepare for mass immunisation in the event of a pandemic is worthwhile. We used simple epidemiological modelling and health economic analysis to identify the range of pandemic and policy scenarios under which plans to immunise the general UK population would have net benefit if a stockpiled vaccine or, alternatively, a responsively purchased vaccine were used. Each scenario we studied comprised a combination of pandemic, vaccine and immunisation programme characteristics in presence or absence of access to effective antivirals, with the chance of there being a pandemic each year fixed. Monetarised health benefits and cost savings from any influenza cases averted were set against the option, purchase, storage, distribution, administration, and disposal costs relevant for each scenario to give a discounted net present value over 10 years for planning to immunise, accounting for the possibility that there may be no pandemic over the period considered. To support understanding and exploration of model output, an interactive visualisation tool was devised and made available online. We evaluated over 29 million combinations of pandemic and policy characteristics. Preparedness plans incorporating mass immunisation show positive net present value for a wide range of scenarios, predominantly in the absence of effective antivirals. Plans based on the responsive purchase of vaccine have wider benefit than plans reliant on the purchase and maintenance of a stockpile if immunisation can start without extensive delays. This finding is not dependent on responsively purchased vaccine being more effective than stockpiled vaccine, but rather is driven by avoiding the costs of storing and replenishing a stockpile.

Type: Article
Title: Exploring the role of mass immunisation in influenza pandemic preparedness: A modelling study for the UK context
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.06.032
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.06.032
Language: English
Additional information: © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Keywords: Epidemiological modelling, Health economic analysis, Influenza pandemic, Preparedness policy, Mass immunisation
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Applied Health Research
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Mathematics
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Mathematics > Clinical Operational Research Unit
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10102089
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