Deng, Xueqi; (2002) The process of understanding the housing market. The role of decision-making models in Hong Kong housing market. Masters thesis (M.Sc), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

This dissertation investigates the investment strategies of major private property firms in Hong Kong in relation to reducing risk and understanding the housing market factors. However, due to time constraints, this report only analyses the period from 1997 to 2001. Firstly, the literature review sets out a framework and context on which this report is based. The literature on the subject of residual valuation, sensitivity analysis and diversification is reviewed. Secondly, an analysis is carried out on some of the biggest property firms in Hong Kong. The analysis looks into the elements that influence these property firms' decision-making model, including government policies, the economic conditions and diversification strategy. In addition, among these analyses a government housing survey will be given out to show the demand structure of Hong Kong housing market. Based on this survey, certain housing projects will be examined to explore how to match the market demand. This report will analyse three different kinds of buyers, high-income house buyer; sandwich class house buyer; inadequately-housed households. Finally, it is concluded that the investment strategy of property developers is to reduce the risk and uncertainty by all the possible techniques. The important skill for a successful developer is to form his own judgment of all the variables and strip away what is unnecessary using data and experience. Only based on the factors of local housing market, decision-maker could invest a profitable housing project and meet the market demand.

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