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Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures

Guan, D; Wang, D; Hallegatte, S; Davis, SJ; Huo, J; Li, S; Bai, Y; ... Gong, P; + view all (2020) Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures. Nature Human Behaviour , 4 pp. 577-587. 10.1038/s41562-020-0896-8. Green open access

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Abstract

Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A ‘go-slow’ approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries.

Type: Article
Title: Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures
Location: England
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-0896-8
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0896-8
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Economics, Environmental social sciences
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10099676
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