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Representation of probabilistic outcomes during risky decision-making

Castegnetti, G; Tzovara, A; Khemka, S; Melinščak, F; Barnes, GR; Dolan, RJ; Bach, DR; (2020) Representation of probabilistic outcomes during risky decision-making. Nature Communications , 11 (1) , Article 2419. 10.1038/s41467-020-16202-y. Green open access

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Abstract

Goal-directed behaviour requires prospectively retrieving and evaluating multiple possible action outcomes. While a plethora of studies suggested sequential retrieval for deterministic choice outcomes, it remains unclear whether this is also the case when integrating multiple probabilistic outcomes of the same action. We address this question by capitalising on magnetoencephalography (MEG) in humans who made choices in a risky foraging task. We train classifiers to distinguish MEG field patterns during presentation of two probabilistic outcomes (reward, loss), and then apply these to decode such patterns during deliberation. First, decoded outcome representations have a temporal structure, suggesting alternating retrieval of the outcomes. Moreover, the probability that one or the other outcome is being represented depends on loss magnitude, but not on loss probability, and it predicts the chosen action. In summary, we demonstrate decodable outcome representations during probabilistic decision-making, which are sequentially structured, depend on task features, and predict subsequent action.

Type: Article
Title: Representation of probabilistic outcomes during risky decision-making
Location: England
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-16202-y
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16202-y
Language: English
Additional information: Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology > Imaging Neuroscience
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10098117
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