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Quantifying the Impact of Chronic Ischemic Injury on Clinical Outcomes in Acute Stroke With Machine Learning

Mah, Y-H; Nachev, P; MacKinnon, AD; (2020) Quantifying the Impact of Chronic Ischemic Injury on Clinical Outcomes in Acute Stroke With Machine Learning. Frontiers in Neurology , 11 , Article 15. 10.3389/fneur.2020.00015. Green open access

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Abstract

Acute stroke is often superimposed on chronic damage from previous cerebrovascular events. This background will inevitably modulate the impact of acute injury on clinical outcomes to an extent that will depend on the precise anatomical pattern of damage. Previous attempts to quantify such modulation have employed only reductive models that ignore anatomical detail. The combination of automated image processing, large-scale data, and machine learning now enables us to quantify the impact of this with high-dimensional multivariate models sensitive to individual variations in the detailed anatomical pattern. We introduce and validate a new automated chronic lesion segmentation routine for use with non-contrast CT brain scans, combining non-parametric outlier-detection score, Zeta, with an unsupervised 3-dimensional maximum-flow, minimum-cut algorithm. The routine was then applied to a dataset of 1,704 stroke patient scans, obtained at their presentation to a hyper-acute stroke unit (St George's Hospital, London, UK), and used to train a support vector machine (SVM) model to predict between low (0-2) and high (3-6) pre-admission and discharge modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores, quantifying performance by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC). In this single center retrospective observational study, our SVM models were able to differentiate between low (0-2) and high (3-6) pre-admission and discharge mRS scores with an AUROC of 0.77 (95% confidence interval of 0.74-0.79), and 0.76 (0.74-0.78), respectively. The chronic lesion segmentation routine achieved a mean (standard deviation) sensitivity, specificity and Dice similarity coefficient of 0.746 (0.069), 0.999 (0.001), and 0.717 (0.091), respectively. We have demonstrated that machine learning models capable of capturing the high-dimensional features of chronic injuries are able to stratify patients-at the time of presentation-by pre-admission and discharge mRS scores. Our fully automated chronic stroke lesion segmentation routine simplifies this process, and utilizes routinely collected CT head scans, thereby facilitating future large-scale studies to develop supportive clinical decision tools.

Type: Article
Title: Quantifying the Impact of Chronic Ischemic Injury on Clinical Outcomes in Acute Stroke With Machine Learning
Location: Switzerland
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.3389/fneur.2020.00015
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.3389/fneur.2020.00015
Language: English
Additional information: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Keywords: Computed tomography, machine learning, prognosis, segmentation, stroke
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology > Brain Repair and Rehabilitation
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10091771
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