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Trends in attempts to quit smoking in England since 2007: A time series analysis of a range of population-level influences

Beard, E; Jackson, S; West, R; Kuipers, M; Brown, J; (2019) Trends in attempts to quit smoking in England since 2007: A time series analysis of a range of population-level influences. Nicotine and Tobacco Research , Article ntz141. 10.1093/ntr/ntz141. Green open access

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Abstract

Aim: To quantify population-level associations between quit attempts and factors that have varied across 2007-2017 in England. Methods: Data from 51,867 past-year smokers taking part in the Smoking Toolkit Study (STS) were aggregated monthly over a 10 year period. The STSinvolves repeated, cross-sectional household surveys of individuals aged 16+ in England. Time series analysis was undertaken using ARIMAX modelling. The input series were: 1) prevalence of smoking reduction using a) e-cigarettes and b) nicotine replacement therapy (NRT); 2) prevalence of roll-your-own tobacco; 3) prevalence of a) smoking and b) non-daily smoking; 4) mass media expenditure; 5)expenditure on smoking; 6) characteristics in the form of a) prevalence of high motivation to quit, b) average age, c) proportion from lower social-grades, and d) average number of cigarettes smoked; and 7) implementation of tobacco control policies. Results: There was a decline in the prevalence of quit attempts from 44.6% to 33.8% over the study period. The partial point-of-sale ban was associated with a temporary increase in quit attempt prevalence (Badjusted=0.224%;95%CI 0.061 to 0.388). A positive association was found with the prevalence of high motivation to quit (Badjusted=0.165 %;95%CI 0.048 to 0.282). There was a negative association with the mean age of smokers (Badjusted=-1.351 %;95%CI -2.168 to -0.534). All other associations were non-significant. Conclusion: Increases in the prevalence of high motivation to quit was associated with higher prevalence of attempts to quit smoking, while an increase in the mean age of smokers was associated with lower prevalence. The introduction of the partial point-of-sale ban appeared to have a temporary positive impact.

Type: Article
Title: Trends in attempts to quit smoking in England since 2007: A time series analysis of a range of population-level influences
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1093/ntr/ntz141
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1093/ntr/ntz141
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences > Clinical, Edu and Hlth Psychology
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Behavioural Science and Health
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10079701
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