UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

What do empirical findings reveal about modelled energy demand and energy ratings? Comparisons of gas consumption across the English residential sector

Summerfield, AJ; Oreszczyn, T; Palmer, J; Hamilton, IG; Li, FGN; Crawley, J; Lowe, RJ; (2019) What do empirical findings reveal about modelled energy demand and energy ratings? Comparisons of gas consumption across the English residential sector. Energy Policy , 129 pp. 997-1007. 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.02.033. Green open access

[img]
Preview
Text
JEPO-D-18-01066 accepted Summerfield et al.pdf - Accepted version

Download (11MB) | Preview

Abstract

Energy ratings and national housing energy models are useful for energy policy evaluation and development, but limited empirical validation of energy demand estimates is available across residential sub-sectors. This study used data from a sample of over 2.5 million gas-heated dwellings in England from the National Energy Efficiency Data-Framework (NEED) to compare with estimates of 2012 gas consumption from the Cambridge Housing Model (CHM), a national energy stock model. The analysis quantified differences by dwelling type, size, and age band. It also compared variations in gas consumption from NEED dwellings with that expected from Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) bands. The findings show that the CHM overestimates average gas consumption from NEED for all dwelling types built before 1930, most notably for large detached dwellings. For other dwellings built since 1930, the model estimates were in relatively close agreement with NEED data. Furthermore, a simple comparison between estimated gas consumption and NEED data suggests savings from upgrading dwellings to at least EPC band C would be substantially lower than expected. Findings raise question regarding assumptions used in models and EPC ratings, including occupancy and space heating patterns, and have implications for development of energy models and policy regarding energy efficiency programmes.

Type: Article
Title: What do empirical findings reveal about modelled energy demand and energy ratings? Comparisons of gas consumption across the English residential sector
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.02.033
Publisher version: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.02.033
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Energy demand; gas consumption; residential sector; national building energy models; Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP)
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10071911
Downloads since deposit
9Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item