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Power Generation Expansion Optimization Model Considering Multi-Scenario Electricity Demand Constraints: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China

Wang, P; Wang, C; Hu, Y; Varga, L; Wang, W; (2018) Power Generation Expansion Optimization Model Considering Multi-Scenario Electricity Demand Constraints: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China. Energies , 11 (6) , Article 1498. 10.3390/en11061498. Green open access

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Abstract

Reasonable and effective power planning contributes a lot to energy efficiency improvement, as well as the formulation of future economic and energy policies for a region. Since only a few provinces in China have nuclear power plants so far, nuclear power plants were not considered in many provincial-level power planning models. As an extremely important source of power generation in the future, the role of nuclear power plants can never be overlooked. In this paper, a comprehensive and detailed optimization model of provincial-level power generation expansion considering biomass and nuclear power plants is established from the perspective of electricity demand uncertainty. This model has been successfully applied to the case study of Zhejiang Province. The findings suggest that the nuclear power plants will contribute 9.56% of the total installed capacity, and it will become the second stable electricity source. The lowest total discounted cost is 1033.28 billion RMB and the fuel cost accounts for a large part of the total cost (about 69%). Different key performance indicators (KPI) differentiate electricity demand in scenarios that are used to test the model. Low electricity demand in the development mode of the comprehensive adjustment scenario (COML) produces the optimal power development path, as it provides the lowest discounted cost.

Type: Article
Title: Power Generation Expansion Optimization Model Considering Multi-Scenario Electricity Demand Constraints: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.3390/en11061498
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.3390/en11061498
Language: English
Additional information: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
Keywords: power generation expansion; scenario analysis; provincial-level; linear programming
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10066198
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