Notz, D;
Stroeve, J;
(2018)
The Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean.
Current Climate Change Reports
, 4
(4)
pp. 407-416.
10.1007/s40641-018-0113-2.
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Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The observed substantial loss of Arctic sea ice has raised prospects of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the foreseeable future. In this review, we summarize our current understanding of the most likely trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover towards this state. RECENT FINDINGS: The future trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover can be described through a deterministic component arising primarily from future greenhouse gas emissions, and a chaotic component arising from internal variability. The deterministic component is expected to cause a largely ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer for less than 2^{\circ} global warming relative to pre-industrial levels. To keep chances below 5 % that the Arctic Ocean will largely be ice free in a given year, total future CO₂ emissions must remain below 500 Gt. SUMMARY: The Arctic Ocean will become ice free during summer before mid-century unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | The Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s40641-018-0113-2 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0113-2 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © The Author(s) 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
| Keywords: | Sea ice, Arctic ocean, Future climate, Climate models, Global warming targets |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Earth Sciences |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10059071 |
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