Kilburn, CRJ;
(2018)
Fecasting volcanic eruptions: beyond the Failure Forecast Method.
Frontiers in Earth Science
, 6
, Article 133. 10.3389/feart.2018.00133.
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Abstract
Volcano-tectonic seismicity and ground movement are the most reliable precursors to eruptions after extended intervals of repose, as well as to flank eruptions from frequently active volcanoes. Their behavior is consistent with elastic-brittle failure of the crust before a new pathway is opened to allow magma ascent. A modified physical model shows that precursory time series are governed by a parent relation between faulting and elastic deformation in extension, subject to independent constraints on the rate of crustal loading with time. The results yield deterministic criteria that can be incorporated into existing operational procedures for evaluating the probability of crustal failure and, hence, levels of alert during an emergency. They also suggest that the popular failure forecast method for using precursory time series to forecast eruptions is a particular form of the parent elastic-brittle model when rates of stress supply are constant, and that magma transport and crustal fracturing during unrest tend toward conditions for minimizing rates of energy loss.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Fecasting volcanic eruptions: beyond the Failure Forecast Method |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.3389/feart.2018.00133 |
| Publisher version: | http://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00133 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © 2018 Kilburn. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
| Keywords: | elastic-brittle failure, eruption forecasts, failure forecast method - FFM, volcano-tectonic seismicity, ground deformation, alert levels, probability of eruption, bulk failure |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Earth Sciences |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10056476 |
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