Crowe, S;
Bennett, P;
Daraktchiev, M;
Utley, M;
(2017)
Use of modelling to inform public health policy: a case study on the blood-borne transmission of variant-CJD.
Journal of the Operational Research Society
, 65
(2)
pp. 269-277.
10.1057/jors.2013.26.
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Abstract
Since the identification of variant Creutzfeldt–Jacob Disease in the late 1980s, the possibility that this disease might be passed on via blood transfusion has presented challenging policy questions for Government and blood services in the UK. This paper discusses the use of mathematical modelling to inform policy in this area of health protection. We focus on the use of a relatively simple analytical model to explore how many such infections might eventually be expected to result in clinical cases under a range of alternative scenarios of interest to policy, and on the potential impact of possible additional counter measures. We comment on the value of triangulating between findings generated using distinct modelling approaches and observational data.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Use of modelling to inform public health policy: a case study on the blood-borne transmission of variant-CJD |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1057/jors.2013.26 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1057/jors.2013.26 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Social Sciences, Science & Technology, Technology, Management, Operations Research & Management Science, Business & Economics, public health, Government, risk, CREUTZFELDT-JAKOB-DISEASE, UNITED-KINGDOM, TISSUE SAMPLES, PRION DISEASES, GREAT-BRITAIN, VCJD EPIDEMIC, TRANSFUSION, UK, RISK, SUSCEPTIBILITY |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Mathematics UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Mathematics > Clinical Operational Research Unit |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10043783 |
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