UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Updating ambiguous beliefs in a social learning experiment

De Filippis, R; Guarino, A; Jehiel, P; Kitagawa, T; (2017) Updating ambiguous beliefs in a social learning experiment. (cemmap working paper 13/17). Institute for Fiscal Studies: London, UK. Green open access

[thumbnail of Kitagawa_CWP1317.pdf]
Preview
Text
Kitagawa_CWP1317.pdf

Download (588kB) | Preview

Abstract

We present a social learning experiment in which subjects predict the value of a good in sequence. We elicit each subject’s belief twice: first (“first belief”), after he observes his predecessors’ prediction; second, after he also observes a private signal. Our main result is that subjects update on their signal asymmetrically. They weigh the private signal as a Bayesian agent when it confirms their first belief and overweight it when it contradicts their first belief. This way of updating, incompatible with Bayesianism, can be explained by ambiguous beliefs (multiple priors on the predecessor’s rationality) and a generalization of the Maximum Likelihood Updating rule. Our experiment allows for a better understanding of the overweighting of private information documented in previous studies.

Type: Working / discussion paper
Title: Updating ambiguous beliefs in a social learning experiment
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1920/wp.cem.2017.1317
Publisher version: http://dx.medra.org/10.1920/wp.cem.2017.1317
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the version of record. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Economics
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10038917
Downloads since deposit
10Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item