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Estimation of bubble dynamics in the Chinese real estate market: a State space model

Gabrieli, T; Pilbeam, K; Wang, T; (2018) Estimation of bubble dynamics in the Chinese real estate market: a State space model. International Economics and Economic Policy , 15 (2) pp. 483-499. 10.1007/s10368-017-0398-y. Green open access

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Abstract

This paper analyses the existence of a bubble in the Chinese real estate market and examines its driving factors with a state-space model. The model considers macroeconomic and real estate time series variables as inputs and employs a Kalman filter to obtain an estimated fundamental price using demand and supply for Chinese real estate. We then measure the deviation between actual and estimated fundamental real estate prices to test for the existence of a bubble. We find evidence for the existence of a bubble especially post 2010, when the deviation ratio is found to be significantly higher with a peak of 80% in 2012. Our estimation of overvaluation is generally much higher than in other studies.

Type: Article
Title: Estimation of bubble dynamics in the Chinese real estate market: a State space model
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1007/s10368-017-0398-y
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10368-017-0398-y
Language: English
Additional information: © The Author(s) 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Keywords: Housing bubble, State-space model, Chinese real estate market
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > The Bartlett School of Planning
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10038866
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