Sikk, A; Koeker, P; (2015) Replacing the rascals? Corruption and candidate turnover in Central and Eastern Europe. Presented at: ECPR Joint Sessions of Workshops, Warsaw.

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Abstract

A number of recent studies have analysed the electoral impact of political corruption. Hanley & Sikk (2014) show that corruption is a crucial condition explaining the success of anti-establishment parties in Central and Eastern Europe. Other studies have shown that widely publicised cases of political malfeasance such as the UK expenses scandal in 2009 affected the re-nomination rates and electoral fortunes of incumbent candidates (Pattie & Johnston 2012). This paper brings together these two streams of literature by looking at the impact of corruption (perception) on candidate turnover. We study party lists in 9 EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe and analyse two aspects of candidate turnover. The analysis is based on a newly created data set that covers most of the elections during the last two decades in the region. We hypothesize that high or increasing levels of corruption create incentives for existing political parties to rejuvenate their candidate lists – getting rid of established (and ostensibly corrupt) politicians and bringing in new candidates with no previous political experience Secondly, we focus on incumbent governing parties, hypothesizing that high or increasing levels of corruption make the revision of candidate lists particularly urgent for those with executive responsibilities. We find that contrary to our initial expectations, increased levels of corruption lead to a decrease in candidate turnover. The effect is only evident and statistically significant among governing parties; turnover in non-governing parties is best explained by party size and changes in popularity.

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