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Seismic risk assessment of complex urban critical infrastructure networks

Kongar, I; (2017) Seismic risk assessment of complex urban critical infrastructure networks. Doctoral thesis , UCL (University College London). Green open access

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Abstract

Existing practice on seismic risk assessment of critical infrastructure systems is reviewed in terms of exposure, hazard, fragility, performance and interdependencies and a framework is proposed for seismic risk assessment model development for the insurance sector. The application of the framework is demonstrated with the electric power and water supply systems in Christchurch, New Zealand. This includes the development of the first ground motion residual spatial correlation model for the region and a simplified method for predicting the occurrence of liquefaction. Empirical data from the 2010-11 Canterbury earthquake sequence are used to derive new fragility functions for substations, buried cables, wells, pumping stations and pipes, in terms of both ground shaking and permanent ground deformation. The model is tested against performance observations from the February 22nd 2011 MW 6.2 Christchurch earthquake and achieves reasonable results when interdependencies between substations and pumps are modelled by nodal analysis with mapped substation supply zones rather than proximity rules. The model is applied to construct a future risk projection and in a 10,000-year stochastic catalogue, the electric power network exhibits high reliability with performance loss in only 2% of events. The water supply system is less reliable, due to the effect of ground shaking and liquefaction on pipes and the effect of power loss on the functionality of pumps, which is shown to increase disconnections by up 30%. A new metric, the interdependency index, is proposed to measure the degree of the dependency of the water supply system on electric power. It is adapted from the Leontief input-output method for infrastructure interdependency modelling and makes use of the system performance results acquired from the future risk projection, by assuming a linear relationship between the change in performance of the water supply system due to power loss and the performance of the electric power network.

Type: Thesis (Doctoral)
Title: Seismic risk assessment of complex urban critical infrastructure networks
Event: UCL (University College London)
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Language: English
URI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1557360
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